Dust, heat and the solar field

01Field scene

A solar field with its own observatory.

Rows of panels with a storage block, a weather station, an aerosol lidar that profiles the dust layer overhead, and an edge node. The performance monitoring standard for photovoltaic plants names the measurements that separate soiling from other losses².

Figure as text: A solar field with an aerosol lidar, weather station and edge

Four solar-and-storage blocks in a wireframe desert plain, an aerosol lidar station with a red halo, a weather station and an edge node linked by dashed red lines.

• Aerosol lidar
• PV block
• Weather
• Edge

02Layer stack

A dust event, layer by layer.

Dust forecasting brings together surface stations, satellite aerosol retrievals and transport models; the World Meteorological Organization coordinates regional warning and assessment centres for it³. Stacked over one area, the layers show where the plume, the plant and the people are.

Figure as text: Dust event layers over a solar region

An exploded stack: terrain, imagery, infrastructure, stations, an aerosol raster with warm ramp values and a modelled plume with a red threshold line.

1. Terrain: Dunes and basins from elevation data.
2. Imagery: Optical scenes.
3. Plants and roads: Solar plants, roads and settlements.
4. Stations: Weather and particulate stations; red ones reporting now.
5. Aerosol optical depth: A satellite aerosol field, ramp from low to high.
6. Modelled plume: Forecast dust concentration; the red line is the warning threshold.

03Simulator

Sun is not the constraint.

With six or more peak sun hours, an off-grid station’s array covers its load easily; the risk is the panel’s surface, not the sky. Compare a clean array with one losing a share of its output to dust by lowering the array rating.

Figure as text: Energy balance of a desert station

A line chart of stored energy over fourteen days holding near full with a positive daily balance.

04Timeline to 2030

Profiles from orbit.

The EarthCARE mission, launched in 2024, carries a lidar and a cloud radar to profile aerosols and clouds from space⁴. Ground lidars on the plant calibrate against it, and it against them.

Figure as text: Dust observation and forecasting

A timeline from 2007 to 2030 with the dust warning system, the PV monitoring standard, the soiling assessment and the EarthCARE launch.

1. 2007 Dust warning and assessment system. A WMO programme coordinating regional dust forecasts.³
2. 2019-10 Global soiling losses assessed. At least three to four per cent of global solar output lost to soiling in 2018, by one estimate.¹
3. 2021 PV monitoring standard revised (IEC 61724-1:2021). Measurement classes for plant performance, including soiling.²
4. 2024-05 EarthCARE launched. Lidar and cloud radar profiling aerosols and clouds from orbit.⁴